U.S. presidential election, 1948

The U.S. presidential election of 1948 is best known as one of the greatest political upsets in history, as incumbent President Harry S Truman defeated Republican Thomas Dewey against the predictions of most contemporary polls and in spite of a three-way split in his own Democratic party.

General election

Campaign

Given Truman's sinking popularity, Dewey seemed unstoppable. The Republicans figured that all they had to do was avoid any major missteps, and as such, Dewey didn't take risks. He spoke in platitudes, trying to transcend politics. Speech after speech was filled with empty statements of the obvious, such as the famous quote: "You know that your future is still ahead of you." An editorial in the Louisville Courier-Journal summed it up best: "No presidential candidate in the future will be so inept that four of his major speeches can be boiled down to these historic four sentences: Agriculture is important. Our rivers are full of fish. You cannot have freedom without liberty. Our future lies ahead."

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Truman, on the other hand, decided to pull the gloves off, targeting the Republican-controlled 80th Congress. The 80th Congress, led by Senator Robert A. Taft of Ohio, was much more conservative than Dewey, and was fixated on rolling back Roosevelt's New Deal. However, under Dewey's leadership, the Republicans enacted a platform at the 1948 convention which called for expanding social security, more funding for public housing, civil rights legislation, and promotion of health and education by the federal government.

Related Topics:
Senator - Robert A. Taft - New Deal - 1948 convention - Social security - Civil rights

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Truman exploited that rift in the party by calling a special session on "Turnip Day" (referring to an old Missouri folklore about planting turnips in late July) to enact legislation consistent with the Republican party's platform. The 80th Congress played right into Truman's hands, delivering very little in the way of substantive legislation during this time. From then on, Truman dubbed them the "Do-Nothing Congress." Truman was able to ignore the fact that Dewey's policies were liberal, and ran against the conservative tendencies of the 80th Congress.

Related Topics:
Turnip Day - 80th Congress - Do-Nothing Congress

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Truman toured the nation with this fiery rhetoric, playing to large, enthusiastic crowds at every stop along the way. "Give 'em hell, Harry" was a popular slogan shouted out at every stop along the tour. However, the polls and the pundits all thought that Truman's efforts were for naught, and pulled back from reporting on the already-decided election.

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Results

As expected, Thurmond's Dixiecrat party took away much of the Democratic Party's traditional base in the "Solid South", while Wallace wooed away voters from the left wing of the Democratic Party. However, Wallace's failure to repudiate the endorsement of the Communist Party had undermined his popularity, and he wound up with just over 2.4 percent of the popular vote. The Dixiecrats held no attraction outside the South and got a slightly smaller percentage of the popular vote. Thus, despite the significant split in the Democratic base, Truman won on November 2, surprising many observers at the time. The Chicago Tribune had gone so far as to print "DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN" on election night as its headline for the following day. A famous photograph shows Truman grinning and holding up a copy of that newspaper with the erroneous headline.

Related Topics:
Solid South - Communist Party - November 2 - Chicago Tribune

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Truman's victory was entirely due to his marginal wins in the large swing states of Ohio, California, and Illinois, all three of which he won by less than 1% and had a combined total of 78 electoral votes, as well as a very small victory in Idaho. Dewey countered by carrying New York and Pennsylvania, the states with the most electoral votes at the time, as well as Michigan, but it wasn't enough to give him the election. Thurmond carried four southern states, giving him a handful of electoral votes, but not enough to deny Truman the majority. Wallace won a nearly identical percentage of the popular vote as Thurmond, but failed to win a single electoral vote.

Related Topics:
Ohio - California - Illinois - Idaho - New York - Pennsylvania - Michigan

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Source (Popular Vote): {{Leip PV source 2| year=1948| as of=August 1, 2005}}

Related Topics:
August 1 - 2005

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Source (Electoral Vote): {{National Archives EV source| year=1948| as of=August 1, 2005}}

Related Topics:
August 1 - 2005

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