The Skeptical Environmentalist

The Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring the Real State of the World (TSE) (Danish: Verdens Sande Tilstand) is a controversial book by political scientist Bjørn Lomborg, which argues that claims made about global warming, overpopulation, declining energy resources, deforestation, species loss, water shortages, and a variety of other global environmental issues are exaggerations and unsupported by a proper analysis of the relevant data. It was first published in Danish in 1998, and the English edition was published as a peer-reviewed work in environmental economics by Cambridge University Press in 2001.

The Litany and Lomborg's findings

"The Litany" comprises very diverse areas where, Lomborg claims, overly pessimistic claims are made and as a result bad policies are implemented. He cites accepted mainstream sources, like the US government, UN agencies and the like. His preference is for global long-term data, as opposed to regional and short-term. The book is extensively footnoted.

Related Topics:
Mainstream - US - UN - Footnote

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The book is arranged around four major themes:

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• Human prosperity from an economic and demographic point of view
• Human prosperity from an ecological point of view
• Pollution as a threat to human prosperity
• Future threats to human prosperity

Human prosperity from an economic and demographic point of view

Lomborg analyses three major themes: life expectancy, food and hunger, and prosperity. He finds that, contrary to what is often claimed, life expectancy and health levels have dramatically improved over the past centuries, even though several regions of the world remain threatened, in particular by AIDS. Similarly, he dismisses Thomas Malthus's theory that the increase in the world's population will lead to widespread hunger. Lomborg shows on the contrary that food is widespread and the world's daily intake of calories is increasing steadily. Indeed, technological improvements in agriculture should help humankind eradicate hunger. However, Lomborg notes that Africa in particular still produces too little food, an effect he attributes to the continent's dismal economic and political systems. Concerning prosperity, Lomborg argues that wealth, as measured by GDP/head, should not be the only criterion to judge prosperity. Lomborg points to improvements in education, safety, leisure, and ever more widespread access to consumer goods as signs that prosperity is increasing in most parts of the world.

Related Topics:
Life expectancy - Food - Hunger - AIDS - Thomas Malthus - Agriculture - Africa

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Human prosperity from an ecological point of view

In this section, Lomborg looks at the world's natural resources. First, he analyses food again, this time from an ecological point of view. Again, he notices that most food products are not threatened by human prosperity. The exception, however, is fish, which continues to be depleted. As a partial solution, Lomborg presents fish farms, which propose a less disruptive impact on the world's oceans. Next, Lomborg looks at forests. He finds no indication of widespread deforestation, and notes that even the Amazon forest still retains more than 80% of its cover in 1978. Lomborg points out that deforestation is linked to poverty and poor economic conditions in the concerned countries, and proposes higher economic growth to tackle the problem of deforestation. Concerning energy, Lomborg notes that oil is not being depleted as fast as is claimed, and that improvements of technology will provide us with fossil fuels for a long time still. Lomborg also points out that many alternatives already exist, and that with time they will replace fossil fuels as an energy source. Concerning other resources, such as metals, Lomborg notes again that these are widely available and that we should not expect problems with these (with the exception of tantalum, which can however be replaced at reasonable prices). Water is another controversial topic. Lomborg notes that, contrary to common thought, wars will probably not erupt because of water (one week of war with the Palestinians, for instance, would cost Israel more than five desalination plants, according to an Israeli officer Lomborg quotes). He emphasizes the need for better water management, however, as water is distributed unequally around the world.

Related Topics:
Fish - Deforestation - Energy - Metal - Tantalum - Water - Israel

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Pollution as a threat to human prosperity

Lomborg looks at pollution from different angles. Concerning air pollution, Lomborg notes that it has steadily decreased in recent decades in rich countries. He finds that air pollution levels are highly linked to economic development, with moderately developed countries polluting most. Again, Lomborg argues that faster growth in emerging countries would help them reduce their air pollution levels. Concerning water pollution, Lomborg notes again that it is linked to economic development. He also notes that water pollution in major Western rivers have recovered quite fast after sewage systems became widespread. Concerning waste, Lomborg notes once again that fears are overblown, as the entire waste produced by the United States of America in the 21st century could fit into a square whose side would be 28 sq. km (i.e. 0.009 % of the total surface of the United States).

Related Topics:
Pollution - Air pollution - Water pollution - Waste - United States of America

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Future threats to human prosperity

Lomborg first looks at our fear of cancer, especially linked to chemicals such as pesticides. He again notes a vast exaggeration in public perception, as alcohol and coffee are the foods that create by far the greatest risk of cancer, as opposed to vegetables which have been sprayed with pesticides. Lomborg also criticises the exaggerated claims of a vertiginous decline in biodiversity, proposing a number of 0.7% of species extinct in 50 years (as compared to 50%, as claimed by some biologists). While this is still a problem, as Lomborg admits, it is not the catastrophe claimed by some. Global warming is another very popular subject at the moment. Lomborg first criticises the models used by some scientists to evaluate global warming. Indeed, Lomborg argues that these models do not take enough into account future technological developments, and that some of them do not take into account that humankind can, through a number of measures such as taxation, still reduce global warming in the future. Lomborg agrees that most of the data points to an increase in temperature levels (though he doesn't believe the most extreme estimations), but disagrees on the measures proposed to counter global warming. He argues that the cost of cutting CO2 emissions have to be compared to other costs, such as fighting poverty and aiding poor countries. Lomborg also point out that there are not only costs to global warming, but also benefits, as large parts of Russia and Canada, for instance, could be put to agricultural use, which would benefit those countries. He therefore asks for a global cost-benefit analysis to be made before deciding on the best measures to take.

Related Topics:
Cancer - Pesticide - Biodiversity - Global warming

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Conclusions

Lomborg concludes his book by once again reviewing the Litany, and noting that the real state of the world is much better than some Cassandras claim. According to Lomborg, this poses a problem, as it focuses public attention on relatively unimportant issues, while ignoring the important ones. This wastes resources that could be put to much better use in aiding poor countries overcoming their poverty (and thus solving their deforestation, water, hunger and pollution problems) or fighting diseases like AIDS. Also, investing in technologies to produce renewable energy would be a good use for our money. Lomborg thus urges us to look at the true problems of the world, since solving those will also solve the Litany.

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