Technological singularity

In future studies, a technological singularity (also referred to as just the Singularity) is a predicted future event when technological progress and societal change accelerate due to the advent of superhuman intelligence, changing our environment beyond the ability of pre-Singularity humans to comprehend or reliably predict. This event is named by analogy with the breakdown of modern physics knowledge near the gravitational singularity of a black hole.

Criticisms

Objections to the Singularity usually focus on one of three themes. Some question extrapolations of exponential growth trends to predict future technological advances. Some question the possibility of human-equivalent artificial intelligence—for further discussion see the articles Strong AI and Artificial consciousness. Others, while believing that the Singularity is possible, see it as unsafe, undesirable, or morally objectionable.

Related Topics:
Artificial intelligence - Strong AI - Artificial consciousness

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Exponential growth curves and Kurzweil's Law of Accelerating Returns

Some claim the exponential growth of technological progress may become linear or inflected or may begin to flatten into a limited-growth curve. In this model, instead of an overall acceleration of progress, technological advance jumps forward whenever there is a human "buy in" and stalls whenever there is no benefit large enough to profit the technologists, and therefore never gets steep enough to be considered a singularity.

Related Topics:
Exponential growth - Profit

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Examples of large human "buy-ins" into technology include the computer revolution, as well as massive government projects like the Manhattan Project and the Human Genome Project. The foundation organizing the Methuselah Mouse Prize believes aging research could be the subject of such a massive project if substantial progress is made in slowing or reversing cellular aging in mice.

Related Topics:
Computer revolution - Manhattan Project - Human Genome Project - Methuselah Mouse Prize - Aging research - Cellular aging

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Both Theodore Modis and Jonathan Huebner have argued—each from different perspectives—that the rate of technological innovation has not only ceased to rise, but is actually now declining. The validity of their conclusions has been criticized by John Smart.

Related Topics:
Theodore Modis - Jonathan Huebner - John Smart

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The desirability and safety of the Singularity

It has been often speculated, in science fiction and elsewhere, that advanced AI is likely to have goals inconsistent with those of humanity and may threaten humanity's existence. It is conceivable, if not likely, that superintelligent AI will simply eliminate the intellectually inferior human race, and humans will be powerless to stop it. This is a major issue concerning both Singularity advocates and critics, and was the subject of an article by Bill Joy appearing in Wired Magazine, ominously titled Why the future doesn't need us.

Related Topics:
Science fiction - Bill Joy - Wired Magazine

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Some argue advanced technologies are simply too dangerous for humans to morally allow them to be built, and advocate efforts to stop their invention. Perhaps the most famous for holding this viewpoint is Theodore Kaczynski, the Unabomber, who believed AI may enable the upper classes of society to "simply decide to exterminate the mass of humanity". Alternatively, if AI is not created, Kaczynski argues that humans "will have been reduced to the status of domestic animals" after sufficient technological progress has been made. Portions of Kaczynski's writings have been included in both Bill Joy's article and in a recent book by Ray Kurzweil. It should be noted that Kaczynski not only opposes the Singularity but also supports neo-Luddism. Many people oppose the Singularity without opposing present-day technology as Luddites do.

Related Topics:
Theodore Kaczynski - Upper class - Bill Joy - Ray Kurzweil - Neo-Luddism - Luddite

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Just as Luddites opposed artifacts of the industrial revolution, due to concern for their effects on employment, some opponents of the Singularity are also concerned about future employment opportunities. Although Luddite concerns about jobs were not supported given the growth in jobs after the industrial revolution, there was one effect on involuntary employment: namely, a dramatic decrease in child labor and the labors of the overaged. Thus, only a drop in voluntary employment should be of concern, not the level of absolute employment (Such a position is held by Henry Hazlitt). Economically, a post-Singularity society would likely have more wealth than a pre-Singularity society (via increased knowledge of matter and energy manipulation to meet human needs) and thus wealth distribution would be easier to solve. One possible post-Singularity future, therefore, is one in which per capita wealth increases dramatically while per capita employment decreases.

Related Topics:
Industrial revolution - Employment - Child labor - Voluntary employment - Absolute employment - Henry Hazlitt - Wealth distribution - Per capita

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Naturally, scenarios such as those described by Kaczynski are also unappealing to Singularity advocates. Many, however, do not feel they are so likely and are more optimistic about the future of technology. Others believe that, regardless of the dangers the Singularity poses, it is simply unavoidable—we must progress technologically because there is just no other path to take.

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Advocates of friendly artificial intelligence acknowledge the Singularity is potentially very dangerous and work to make it safer by creating seed AI that will act benevolently towards humans and eliminate existential risks. This idea is also embodied in Isaac Asimov's Three Laws of Robotics, which prevent an artificially intelligent robot from acting malevolently towards humans.

Related Topics:
Friendly artificial intelligence - Seed AI - Existential risk - Isaac Asimov - Three Laws of Robotics

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Singularity advocates generally postulate that as the Singularity approaches, it goes undetected. Humans, however, are both externally and internally aware of change; therefore the likelihood of such a change going undetected in the environment is small. And the effects? One answer might be societal entropy to the point that the Singularity is impeded from occurring. If it is generally known that the Singularity is being approached—with its unknowns—then learning, investment, and technology enhancement collapse under a weight of uncertainty. Devoid of the next level of technical infusion, the Singularity is never approached, and human society collapses in a deflationary wait for the Big Bang or in a variant of intellectual Cargo Cultism.

Related Topics:
Deflationary - Big Bang - Cargo Cult

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Another viewpoint, although a much less common one, is that AI will eventually dominate or destroy the human race, and that this scenario is acceptable. AI researcher Hugo de Garis is most notable for his support of this opinion.

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