Risk compensation

In ethology, risk compensation (sometimes known as risk homeostasis) is an effect whereby individual animals may tend to adjust their behaviour in response to perceived changes in risk. It is seen as self-evident that individuals will tend to behave in a more cautious manner if their perception of risk or danger increases. It is argued that the reverse also applies and that individuals may tend to behave less cautiously in situations where they feel "safer" or more protected.

Related Topics:
Ethology - Homeostasis - Animal - Behaviour

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There is compelling evidence that such an effect is seen in humans, associated with the use of safety features such as car seat belts, antilock braking systems and bicycle helmets. The existence of this balancing behaviour does not mean an intervention does not work: the effect could be less than, equal to or even more than the true efficacy of the intervention, depending on how well the perceived efficacy matches actual efficacy - and this will differ from individual to individual. It is likely to be least when an intervention is imperceptible and greatest when an intervention is intrusive or conspicuous.

Related Topics:
Human - Car - Seat belt - Antilock braking system - Bicycle helmet

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The theory grew largely out of investigations of road safety interventions. It was noted that interventions had failed to achieve the forecast savings in lives and injuries. Theorists speculated that while the studies demonstrated that the probability of injury given a crash had reduced, the fact that the overall probability of injury was unchanged indicated that there must have been some change in the probability of crashing.

Related Topics:
Road safety - Probability

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This controversial view was at first strongly resisted but detailed investigation, particularly of the case of compulsory seat belts, caused the theory to become much more widely accepted.

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The logical conclusion of this theory has been reached with the Naked Streets initiatives piloted first in Denmark and the Netherlands, and now being copied eleswhere in Europe and North America. Significant safety benefits have been claimed from the complete removal of street furniture and signage from urban environments, requiring all users to take more care.

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