Conspiracy theory

:For the fictional film, see Conspiracy Theory (movie).

Karl Popper and Falsifiability

Karl Popper claimed that science is essentially defined as a set of falsifiable hypotheses; metaphysical or unscientific theories and claims are those which do not furnish any means for falsification. Critics of conspiracy theories sometimes argue that many of them are not falsifiable and so cannot be scientific. This accusation is often accurate, and is a necessary consequence of the logical structure of certain kinds of conspiracy theories. These take the form of uncircumscribed existential statements, alleging the existence of some action or object without specifying the place or time at which it can be observed. Failure to observe the phenomenon can then always be the result of looking in the wrong place or looking at the wrong time — that is, having been duped by the conspiracy. This makes impossible any demonstration that the conspiracy does not exist. Establishing a negative is philosophically problematic, perhaps especially so in this context. Falsificationists might also claim that this makes conspiracy theories unscientific.

Related Topics:
Karl Popper - Science - Falsifiable - Hypotheses - Metaphysical - Existential statements

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For example, consider how one would prove the widely believed UFO conspiracy theory (in which aliens are said to have visited Earth), followed by the official denials (perhaps chiefly because the U.S. Government, or others, is hiding the evidence) that any such thing has happened. Since the theory does not specify when or where or how the visits or the conspiracy occurred, it is not possible to show it to be false. Even if, for example, we were given the run of the Pentagon (or some other government agency's) archives, the possibility always exists that there is an archive somewhere else detailing the conspiracy, to which we do not have access.

Related Topics:
UFO conspiracy theory - Pentagon

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In his two volume work, The Open Society & Its Enemies, 1938–1943 Popper used the term "conspiracy theory" to criticize the ideologies driving fascism, Nazism and communism. Popper argued that totalitarianism was founded on "conspiracy theories" which drew on imaginary plots driven by paranoid scenarios predicated on tribalism, racism or classism. Popper did not argue against the existence of everyday conspiracies (as incorrectly suggested in some later literature). Popper even uses the term "conspiracy" to describe ordinary political activity in the classical Athens of Plato (who was the principal target of his attack in The Open Society & Its Enemies).

Related Topics:
Fascism - Nazism - Communism - Classical Athens - Plato

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In response to this objection to conspiracy theory, some argue that no political or historical theory can be scientific by Popper's criterion because none reliably generate testable predictions. In fact, Popper himself rejected the claims of Marxism and psychoanalysis to scientific status on precisely this basis. (Many scientists today dispute the idea that Marxism is science at all; similarly, neurobiology and behaviorist psychology claim that classic forms of psychoanalysis have no scientific basis.) This does not necessarily mean that conspiracy theory, Marxism, and psychoanalysis are baseless, irrational, or false; it does mean that if they are false there is no way to show it. They do not make testable predictions, and so are not science by Popper's criterion. Such arguments have raised a debate on whether Popper's criterion should be applied in the social sciences as strictly as in natural sciences. Falsifiability has been widely criticised for misrepresenting the actual process of scientific discovery by a number of scholars, notably paradigm theorist and Popper's former students Thomas Kuhn, Paul Feyerabend, and Imre Lakatos. Within epistemological circles, falsifiability is not now considered a tenable criterion for determining scientific status, although it remains popular.

Related Topics:
Marxism - Psychoanalysis - Neurobiology - Behaviorist - Paradigm - Thomas Kuhn - Paul Feyerabend - Imre Lakatos - Epistemological

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