Canadian federal election, 2004

The Canadian federal election, 2004 (more formally, the 38th general election), was held on June 28, 2004 to elect members of the Canadian House of Commons. The Liberal government of Prime Minister Paul Martin lost its majority, but was able to form a minority government after the elections. The main opposition party, the newly amalgamated Conservative Party of Canada, improved its position but with a showing below its expectations.

Major parties

Liberal Party of Canada

Until the sponsorship scandal, most pundits were predicting that new Prime Minister Paul Martin would lead the Liberal Party of Canada to a fourth majority government, possibly setting a record for number of seats won.

Related Topics:
Sponsorship scandal - Prime Minister - Paul Martin - Liberal Party of Canada - Majority government

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However, polls released immediately after the scandal broke showed Liberal support down as much as 10% nationwide, with greater declines in its heartland of Quebec and Ontario. Although there was some recovery in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, Liberal hopes of making unprecedented gains in the west faded. The unpopularity of some provincial Liberal parties may also have had an effect on federal Liberal fortunes. In Ontario, for instance, the provincial Liberal government introduced an unpopular budget the week of the expected election call, and their federal counterparts then fell into a statistical dead heat with the Conservatives in polls there. The Liberals were also harmed by high profile party infighting that have been plaguing the party since Martin's earlier ejection from Cabinet by now-former Prime Minister Jean Chrétien.

Related Topics:
Quebec - Ontario - Atlantic Canada - Provincial Liberal - Conservatives - Party infighting

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The campaign was criticized openly by Liberal candidates, one incumbent Liberal comparing it to the Keystone Kops.

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Conservative Party of Canada

In the final months of 2003, the Progressive Conservatives and the Canadian Alliance were running a distant third and fourth, respectively, in public opinion polls.

Related Topics:
2003 - Progressive Conservatives - Canadian Alliance

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Many pundits predicted that the combination of the popular and fiscally conservative Martin, along with continued vote-splitting on the right, could have led to the almost total annihilation of the Progressive Conservatives and Canadian Alliance. This fear prompted those two parties to form a united Conservative Party of Canada, which was approved by the members of the Canadian Alliance on December 5, 2003 and controversially by the delegates of the Progressive Conservatives on December 6, 2003.

Related Topics:
Conservative Party of Canada - December 5 - 2003 - December 6

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The new Conservative Party pulled well ahead of the NDP in the polls just before the election, although its support remained below the combined support that the Progressive Conservatives and the Alliance had as separate parties. On March 20, the Conservatives elected Stephen Harper as their new leader.

Related Topics:
March 20 - Stephen Harper

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The Conservatives gained more ground in polls after Harper became leader, and the poll results in the weeks before the election had them within one to two points of the Liberals, sometimes ahead, sometimes behind them. Party supporters hoped that the voters would react negatively to the Liberal attacks on Harper's agenda, and that anger over the sponsorship scandal and other Liberal failures would translate to success at the polls. Although on the eve of the election the party was polling slightly ahead of the Liberals everywhere west of Quebec, it had dropped in support, polling behind or an par with Liberals everywhere except Alberta and British Columbia, where it held onto its traditional support.

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All together the new Conservatives fell from the combined Canadian Alliance-Progressive Conservative vote in 2000 of 37%, to only 29% of the vote, yet still gained 21 extra seats.

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New Democratic Party

Before the announcement of the union of the right-of-centre parties, some were predicting that the New Democratic Party would form the official opposition because the NDP was polling ahead of both right-of-centre parties. A new leader (Jack Layton) and clear social democratic policies helped revitalize the NDP. Polls suggested that the NDP had returned to the 18% to 20% level of support it enjoyed in the 1984 election and 1988 election. Layton suggested that the NDP would win more than the 43 seats won under former leader Ed Broadbent. Broadbent was returned to Parliament after many years of absence.

Related Topics:
New Democratic Party - Official opposition - Jack Layton - Social democratic - 1984 election - 1988 election - Ed Broadbent

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The NDP focused the campaign on winning ridings in Canada's urban centres, hoping especially to win seats in central Toronto, Hamilton, Ottawa and Winnipeg. The party's platform was built to cater to these regions and much of Layton's time was spent in these areas.

Related Topics:
Toronto - Hamilton - Ottawa - Winnipeg

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The campaign stumbled early when the Liberals attacked Layton for blaming the deaths of homeless people on Paul Martin. They accused the NDP of negative campaigning. The NDP benefited from the decline in Liberal support, but not to the same extent as the Conservatives. There was an increasing prospect that NDP voters would switch to the Liberals to block a Conservative government. This concern did not manifest itself in the polls, however, and the NDP remained at somewhat below 20 percent mark in the polls for most of the campaign.

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Bloc Québécois

The Bloc Québécois (BQ) continued to slide in the polls in most of 2003 after the election of the federalist Quebec Liberal Party at the National Assembly of Quebec under Jean Charest, and during the long run-up to Paul Martin becoming leader of the federal Liberals.

Related Topics:
Bloc Québécois - 2003 - Quebec Liberal Party - National Assembly of Quebec - Jean Charest

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However, things progressively changed during 2003, partly because of the decline in popularity of the Liberal Party of Quebec government of Jean Charest, and partly because support for independence in Quebec rose again (49% in March). The tide took its sharp turn when, in February 2004, the sponsorship scandal (uncovered in considerable part by the Bloc) hit the Liberal federal government.

Related Topics:
2003 - Decline in popularity - Liberal Party of Quebec - Jean Charest - Independence in Quebec - February - 2004

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These events led to a resurgence of the BQ, putting it ahead of the pack once again: according to an Ipsos-Reid poll carried out for The Globe and Mail and CTV between the 4th and the 8th of June, 50% of Quebecers intended to vote for the BQ against 24% for the Liberals.

Related Topics:
Ipsos-Reid - The Globe and Mail - CTV

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Speculation was ongoing about the possibility of the Bloc forming alliances with other opposition parties or with an eventual minority government to promote its goals of social democracy and respect of the autonomy of provinces. Leader Gilles Duceppe stated that the Bloc, as before, would co-operate with other opposition parties or with the government when interests were found to be in common, but that the Bloc would not participate in a coalition government.

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Green Party of Canada

The Greens ran candidates in all 308 ridings. The party won twice as many votes in this election than it had over the previous 21 years of its history combined. It also raised and spent more money than in the previous 21 years.

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