Binomial distribution

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of standards used for probability distribution articles such as this one. -->

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:See binomial (disambiguation) for a list of other topics using that name.

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In probability theory and statistics, the binomial distribution is the discrete probability distribution of the number of successes in a sequence of n independent yes/no experiments, each of which yields success with probability p. Such a success/failure experiment is also called a Bernoulli experiment or Bernoulli trial. In fact, when n = 1, then the binomial distribution is the Bernoulli distribution. The binomial distribution is the basis for the popular binomial test of statistical significance.

Related Topics:
Probability theory - Statistics - Probability distribution - Independent - Probability - Bernoulli trial - Bernoulli distribution - Binomial test - Statistical significance

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A typical example is the following: assume 5% of the population is HIV-positive. You pick 500 people randomly. How likely is it that you get 30 or more HIV-positives?

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The number of HIV-positives you pick is a random variable X which follows a binomial distribution with n = 500 and p = .05. We are interested in the probability Pr.

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In general, if the random variable X follows the binomial distribution with parameters n and p, we write X ~ B(n, p). The probability of getting exactly k successes is given by the probability mass function:

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:f(k;n,p)={nchoose k}p^k(1-p)^{n-k},

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for k=0,1,2,dots,n and where

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:{nchoose k}=rac{n!}{k!(n-k)!}

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is the binomial coefficient "n choose k" (also denoted C(n, k)), whence the name of the distribution. The formula can be understood as follows: we want k successes (pk) and n − k failures ((1 − p)n − k). However, the k successes can occur anywhere among the n trials, and there are C(n, k) different ways of distributing k successes in a sequence of n trials.

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The cumulative distribution function can be expressed in terms of the regularized incomplete beta function, as follows:

Related Topics:
Cumulative distribution function - Regularized incomplete beta function

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: F(k;n,p) = I_{1-p}(n-k, k+1),.

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If X ~ B(n, p) (that is, X is a binomially distributed random variate), then the expected value of X is

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:E=np,

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and the variance is

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:mbox{var}(X)=np(1-p).,

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The most likely value or mode of X is given by the largest integer less than or equal to (n+1)p; if m = (n+1)p is itself an integer, then m − 1 and m are both modes.

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If X ~ B(n, p) and Y ~ B(m, p) are independent binomial variables, then X + Y is again a binomial variable; its distribution is

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:X+Y sim B(n+m, p).,

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Two other important distributions arise as approximations of binomial distributions:

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• If both np and n(1 − p) are greater than 5 or so, then an excellent approximation (provided a suitable continuity correction is used) to B(n, p) is given by the normal distribution

:: N(np, np(1-p)).,

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:This approximation is a huge time-saver; historically, it was the first use of the normal distribution, introduced in Abraham de Moivre's book The Doctrine of Chances in 1733. Nowadays, it can be seen as a consequence of the central limit theorem since B(n, p) is a sum of n independent, identically distributed 0-1 indicator variables. Warning: this approximation gives inaccurate results unless a continuity correction is used. Note: that the picture gives the normal and binomial probability density functions (PDF) and not the cumulative distribution functions.

Related Topics:
Abraham de Moivre - The Doctrine of Chances - Central limit theorem - Indicator variable - Continuity correction - Probability density function - Cumulative distribution function

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:For example, suppose you randomly sample n people out of a large population and ask them whether they agree with a certain statement. The proportion of people who agree will of course depend on the sample. If you sampled groups of n people repeatedly and truly randomly, the proportions would follow an approximate normal distribution with mean equal to the true proportion p of agreement in the population and with standard deviation σ = (p(1 − p)/n)1/2. Large sample sizes n are good because the standard deviation gets smaller, which allows a more precise estimate of the unknown parameter p.

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• If n is large and p is small, so that np is of moderate size, then the Poisson distribution with parameter λ = np is a good approximation to B(n, p).

The formula for Bézier curves was inspired by the binomial distribution.

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Binomial distribution: Limits of binomial distributions ►